Eye on the Market

Russia/Ukraine update: energy implications

The brief note covers the price Europe is now paying for allowing its energy reliance on Russia to reach extreme levels, and th…

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers.

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

The Bounce

On the recovery in the economy and markets; latest updates on second waves, vaccine timetables and the Sweden experiment.

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the China-US deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two year…

The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

Explaining global economic and equity market resilience.

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020…

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs.

Letters to the Editor

Letters to the Editor. To start, some comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence during the narrowest market…

Too Long at the Fair

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while.

Oh, The Places We Could Go

A recent article in the South China Morning Post was entitled “End of dollar dominance will also spell demise of US hegemony”. …

Frankenstein's Monster

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real…

Silicon Valley Bank failure

One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

Winter Heating

US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot.

American Gothic

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

First, a gift for our clients: a 2022-themed non-fungible token for your digital collection embedded in the Eye on the Market. …

Little Red Wagon

A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

A Thanksgiving list of things I am thankful for. My list this year: CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273.

Reruns

Three reruns for investors: equity declines, Thucydides Trap update, and the Pitcairn Problem.

Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much…

The Risks of Concentrated Stocks in Asia

“While concentrated stock positions can create substantial wealth, there is also a high probability of dramatic losses that hav…

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe…

Independence Days

Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe…

Dearly beloved

Dearly Beloved: some comments on Jamie’s hurricane reference last week regarding the US economy, and a eulogy for unprofitable…

Bear Market Barometers

The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. You can be patient when adding risk to portfolios; earnings…

12th Annual Energy Paper (2022)

We examine the energy landscape in 2022, including the energy crisis in Europe, deep decarbonization plans through…

The Tide Goes Out: Growth Trade Aftermath

Growth Trade Aftermath: asset allocation, equity mutual funds and hedge funds after the selloff

Surveying the Damage

Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investor…

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine; full steam ahead for the Fed; the paths not taken.

Russia/Ukraine update: energy implications

The brief note covers the price Europe is now paying for allowing its energy reliance on Russia to reach extreme levels, and th…

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers.

The Maltese Falcoin

On cryptocurrencies and the blockchain

Eye on the Market Outlook 2022 – Reflation: Endgame

A look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are already pricing in plenty of good news.

Manchin and the reconciliation bill

You have all seen the news articles by now. The short version: Pelosi encouraged House Democrats to pass a bill that Manchin…

2021 Holiday Eye on the Market: The Middle Ages

On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron

Thanksgiving Eye on the Market: “The Thing”

Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

Help Wanted

Topics: Labor shortages, the issue of Taiwan and an update on the most over-indebted US states

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the…

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology…

Spaccine hesitancy

Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity…

Red Med Redemption

Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US…

Thy Brother's Keeper

Topics: Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and a unified theory of…

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional…

An investor's look at the China recovery

Topics: An investor’s look at China’s recovery, the Sinopharm vaccine and the importance of scientific methods

Inflation. Duh!

This Eye on the Market addresses questions we’re receiving on markets, inflation, rates and capital gains taxes, and concludes…

11th Annual Energy Paper (2021)

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

Absolute Value

Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it…

The Smalligarchy

How the narrowest political margins in decades could deliver one of the biggest taxation and spending increases in the post-war…

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t…it’s amazing to see…

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

Hydraulic Spacking

In this month’s note, we look at the SPAC capital raising boom and Biden’s early stage energy policies.

Fear of Flying

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Our views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’…

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B…

The Armageddonists, Revisited

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with…

Quiet Flows the Don

For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds.

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

During the President’s speech on Thursday, he made it clear that the next step in the process will be a wave of GOP litigation…

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for…

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

We’ve all been focused on the election recently, but there are other topics worth covering since they will affect markets…

Buckle Up!

Pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions; Equity market impacts.

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

10th Annual Energy Paper (2020)

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

The Bounce

On the recovery in the economy and markets; latest updates on second waves, vaccine timetables and the Sweden experiment.

The day after: Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer…

In this week’s note, we introduce real-time debit and credit card spending data to track the rebirth of the US consumer.

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

This week, we look at the US as it prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world.

State’s Rights

The latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Are we there yet?

Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet? Also, a review of the latest regional antibody test results and…

COVID and culture

Collectivism vs Individualism and its impact on COVID infection rates; when US states might reopen; a history of US equity bottoms

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

The recent equity rally and antibody tests that could signal the onset of higher levels of immunity.

Man vs. nature, part II

Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can’t.

The virus, John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to…

How quickly countries rebound from crisis and economic hardship.

The Pandemic Gap

The critical distinction between the “infected” and the “sick”, mortality rates, and important context around the Spanish Flu.

Berning Man

An update on the Democratic Primary, and more on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

Millions and Trillions

US megacap stocks and high market concentration, Democratic Healthcare plan costs, and a deep dive on the student loan crisis.

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the China-US deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Test - New York, Just Like I Pictured It

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

A Thanksgiving list of things I am thankful for. My list this year: CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273.

Reruns

Three reruns for investors: equity declines, Thucydides Trap update, and the Pitcairn Problem.

Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much…

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe…

The second gear of the Manchin-Schumer bill

While the Manchin-Schumer bill (if passed) would almost certainly accelerate the US energy transition, nothing like a CBO…

The Smalligarchy

How the narrowest political margins in decades could deliver one of the biggest taxation and spending increases in the post-war…

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

Fear of Flying

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Our views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’…

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B…

The Armageddonists, Revisited

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with…

Quiet Flows the Don

For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds.

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

During the President’s speech on Thursday, he made it clear that the next step in the process will be a wave of GOP litigation…

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for…

Buckle Up!

Pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions; Equity market impacts.

State’s Rights

The latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Berning Man

An update on the Democratic Primary, and more on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

Millions and Trillions

US megacap stocks and high market concentration, Democratic Healthcare plan costs, and a deep dive on the student loan crisis.

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the China-US deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Test - New York, Just Like I Pictured It