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Mid-Year Outlook | 2023

The Recession Obsession

Backed up by client data, here are actionable ideas to help you position your portfolio for weaker growth, but stronger capital markets.
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Idea no. 1
Client data 7 of 30 Number of weeks our clients have been net buyers of equities since the market bottomed footnote 1

Rebuild your equity portfolio now for the next bull market

Our clients were right to trim their equity exposure last year. Now it’s time to reposition portfolios for the next bull market.

Three areas that could outperform
Idea no. 2
Client data 47% U.S. clients who are materially underweight Europe relative to developed equity benchmarks footnote 2

You probably stay too close to home with your investments

Over two-thirds of our U.S. clients have no exposure to China and half are underweight Europe. Clients in Europe and Asia have a similar “home bias.” Valuation discounts could make this moment a good entry point.

See the areas of opportunity
Idea no. 3
Market data 1 of 5 Number of stocks in the Russell 3000 index that have fallen more than 75% from their 2021 highs footnote 3

Manage your concentrated positions

If you have wealth concentrated in a single asset, you know a big loss will bite. But you might not understand the full impact on your financial plans.

Get our analysis
Idea no. 4
Client data $150B+ Increase in clients’ allocations to cash over the past 12 months. footnote 4

You may hold too much cash and not enough bonds

In the last 12 months our clients significantly boosted their allocations to cash and short-term fixed income. That made sense as rates rose. But over the next 12 months clients will likely need to reinvest with lower rates.

View the possible ideas
Idea no. 5
Client data $7B Client capital allocated to real assets and private credit over the past 12 months footnote 5

Know the risks – and opportunities – in regional U.S. banks and real estate

Rising rates can wreak havoc. Risks now look acute for regional U.S. banks and commercial real estate. But are there profits to be found in the pain?

Read about areas of opportunity
The Upshot

At a moment of doubt, we see promise.

We understand why many investors doubt the recent rally. Inflation and interest rates are still high. Growth is slowing. Recession is coming.

Examining the same set of facts, we see promise.

Download the PDF

Additional in-depth research

The opportunity in renewed U.S. industrial policy

In the wake of globalization’s grim consequences, three new laws seek to reindustrialize the heartland.
Learn more

The Global Investment Strategy View June 2023

Our economists and strategists explore global financial markets and provide our latest asset class outlooks.
Learn more

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  • Demonstrated ability to manage wealth planning, investments, credit, and banking
  • Strong community presence with an established network 

 

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JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively "JPMCB") offer investment products, which may include bank-managed accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states. Please read the Legal Disclaimer in conjunction with these pages.

 

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

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LEARN MORE About Our Firm and Investment Professionals Through FINRA Brokercheck

 

To learn more about J.P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products. 

 

 

 

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively "JPMCB") offer investment products, which may include bank-managed accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states. Please read the Legal Disclaimer in conjunction with these pages.

Deposit Protection Scheme
INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

Bank deposit products, such as checking, savings and bank lending and related services are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

Not a commitment to lend. All extensions of credit are subject to credit approval.

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