Highlights from a conversation between Michael Cembalest and Dr. Henry Kissinger

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A Conversation with Michael Cembalest (Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy) and Dr. Henry Kissinger (Chairman of Kissinger Associates Incorporated).

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Mr. Cembalest (a man with short brown hair and glasses) sits next to Dr. Kissinger (a mature man with white hair and glasses.)

Michael Cembalest:

In the late 1990s, a bunch of people that you know from George Cannon to Robert McNamara, Stansfield Turner, President of Naval War College, Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, Paul Nitze, Secretary of the Navy, and then Bill Bradley, Gary Hart, Sam Nunn, all these people signed a letter to President Clinton at the time warning of the dangers of NATO expansion to Russia's doorstep. With 20/20 hindsight, did the people who signed that letter have a point about the dangers of NATO expansion as far as it went?

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Text of Dr. Kissinger's reply appears as he speaks.

Henry Kissinger:

I thought expanding into NATO, into Ukraine, was extremely dangerous and had a high propensity to lead to war as it has because it touched the core of Russian strategic and historic thinking. A horrendous mistake and wrong that Putin undertook was not so much arguing about the status of Ukraine but launching an attack on Ukraine that would bring the whole country back under Russian domination and launching a military attack across almost the entire Ukraine.

Michael Cembalest:

The strange irony is, and maybe you can help us figure this out, for many years, people were arguing that the Ukraine should have been aiming for something like a Finlandization, which is economic relations with the West but a clear distancing from NATO membership and foreign military on their soil. And now here we are, several months into this war, and now after all these decades both Finland and Sweden are in the midst of a NATO ratification process. What's your opinion about that?

Henry Kissinger:

The next issue will be that after the war ends, no matter how it ends, what the relationship of Russia will be to Europe. And whether Russia will look at its future in some relationship with Europe as it has through all of its recent history or whether it ties itself to China in some aspects, whether it will be the dividing line between Europe and Asia for Europe or for China.

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